When I wake up in the morning, at some moment I am presented with a choice in how to approach the day. The choices I make determine, to some extent, how any given day will unfold. Some mornings I pause and think about the day ahead. I recall past occurrences, review my calendars for activities, and map out a course of action to accomplish tasks. I envision a story about how the day will unfold, and I examine the day as it unravels. During the day, I observe how activities are progressing. Are meetings running longer than anticipated? Did an unexpected school incident affect our children? Did an unexpected automobile accident prevent a timely route to a scheduled activity with the family? These types of signs require me to adjust future appointments or change my course of action throughout the day. In a small way, I am doing my scenario planning. Scenario planning requires an abstraction of the future, positing what may occur throughout time. It works best in scenarios described as "high uncertainty-high complexity" (Koehler & Harvey, 2004). In reality, my daily activities could hardly be described as uncertain or highly complex. Scenario planning works best for complex activities with multiple variables. It uses qualitative and quantitative data and determines a response to various scenarios (Saulsgiver, 2021).
Scenario planning is not what I typically do when I wake up in the morning. What I usually do is more akin to forecasting. When I wake, I use past experiences to determine the day's events. Koehler and Harvey describe forecasting as an activity that "…involves making predictions about an unknown question or issue" (Koehler & Harvey, 2004, pp. 274). Some days, I react to events using life experience without anticipating and planning for various outcomes. Forecasting is similar to this activity because it takes past quantitative data and predicts future performance. For my day-to-day life, forecasting seems to get the job done. However, there are some times when scenario planning will ensure I have a more successful day. For example, if my day requires me to take an airplane across the country for a critical business meeting. The advantages to each type of planning activity are that forecasting is it uses real data and requires less time. Forecasting analyzes concrete facts from the past to anticipate the future. Forecasting is often performed to predict short periods in the future. The disadvantage of forecasting is that it is less responsive to unexpected changes. For example, if I expected revenues to be significantly higher based on a forecast, and I performed no planning around the scenario if income is low, then I may be in severe financial trouble. Scenario planning anticipates multiple outcomes and maps them to stories. These stories have signs and markers that adjust the narrative as it flows. The scenarios use quantitative and qualitative data to develop a narrative that could happen or the opposite. The process anticipates a variety of outcomes well into the future. One disadvantage of scenario planning is that it requires a significant investment in resources and time. Also, scenario planning may be far from accurate given that it is used to predict outcomes many years into the future. In most cases, scenario planning is best performed by many experts (e.g., my wife, children, coworkers) to anticipate the outcomes of the day. This is not always possible and may drive said experts nuts. Forecasting my day is something that is easier to do, and it keeps the experts happy. However, when a complex vacation travel agenda needs to be made, then scenario planning may be the best activity to perform. After all, you never know when Coronavirus pandemics may come along to rain on your Disney Cruise line parade! References Koehler, D. J., & Harvey, N. (2004). Blackwell handbook of judgment and decision making. Blackwell Pub. Saulsgiver, W. (2021, August 20). Scenario Planning versus Forecasting. Schultz Financial Group Inc. https://sfginc.com/scenario-planning-versus-forecasting/
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AuthorI am a Doctoral Scholar at Colorado Technical University and a graduate of the Cyber Security Operations and Leadership program from the University of San Diego. I work in cybersecurity, and have accumulated twenty years in the IT industry. There are few IT roles I have not performed, which gives me great insights into making sense of all the IT confusion. Archives
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